Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,283,929$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(8.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,563.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,563.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $77,180$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,889.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,007,756$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,674$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,837.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(75,837.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,697$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,544.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,544.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,738$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,070$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,998.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,998.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $231$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(14.1 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,953$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,376$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(597 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,038.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,038.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $380$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(43.9 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{377.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(377.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,710$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,522$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(775 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,542.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 50.5)}}\) (asimptote \(60,542.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,160$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,075.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,075.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,048$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,771$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(55.9 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.75 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(215.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,472$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(201 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,836.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,836.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $74$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.81 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(81.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $490$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{588.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(588.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $419$ on 2020-05-08
