Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,283,929$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,563.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,563.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $77,180$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,889.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,007,756$ on 2020-05-08

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,674$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,837.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(75,837.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,697$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,544.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,544.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,738$ on 2020-05-08

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,070$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,998.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,998.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $231$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(14.1 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,953$ on 2020-05-08

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,376$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(597 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,038.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,038.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $380$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(43.9 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{377.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(377.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,710$ on 2020-05-08

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,522$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(775 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,542.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 50.5)}}\) (asimptote \(60,542.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,160$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,075.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,075.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,048$ on 2020-05-08

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,771$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(55.9 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(9.75 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(215.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,472$ on 2020-05-08

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(201 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,836.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,836.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(7.81 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(81.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-08

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $490$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{588.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(588.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-08

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $419$ on 2020-05-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Costa Rica recovered 46%
Cuba recovered 31%

Costa Rica

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $773$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{733.2}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(733.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-08

Active

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $306$ on 2020-05-08